Stocks
A record half, down 15% the next session — what got priced was the number it reissued 過去最高益の翌営業日に15%安 — 値がついたのは出し直した見通し
Kioxia fell more than 15% in Tokyo on Monday. It had reported its half-year results after Friday's close. It is also the name Japanese retail message boards post about most.
The results were the largest numbers in the company's listed history. Half-year profit came in dozens of times above last year's, and it declared its first dividend since going public. It sold off anyway. What got read was not the half that had happened but the October-December outlook sitting in the same filing. Revenue there is up 1% from the prior quarter. On the call, management said some product sales had been pulled forward into July-September, and that half of its selling prices were still under negotiation at the end of October. None of that is bad news. The number just isn't growing.
The same day, Marubun hit its daily limit up. It is an electronics trading house that moves semiconductors. Its first half came in well above its own plan, so it rewrote both its full-year profit forecast and its annual dividend. The dividend went from 77 yen to 100. Tokyo Electron rose because its own profit outlook came in above what the market expected, and Lasertec raised its order plan.
The US semiconductor index had fallen hard the previous Friday. That is a morning when Tokyo's chip names all open cheaper. Instead the sector split. Every name on the up side was a company that had just reissued a number about what comes next.
In Japan the company publishes its own forecast. When it changes one mid-year, the change is filed as a disclosure of its own. The benchmark investors watch is not the brokers' estimate but the figure the company put down earlier. Kioxia is the odd one here: it does not publish a full-year forecast at all. It publishes one quarter ahead. So the whole weight lands on that single line.
Where you are, when a company's own guidance and the analyst consensus point in different directions, which one does the stock move to?昨日、キオクシアが15%以上下げました。金曜日の引け後に中間決算を出したばかりです。掲示板に書き込みがいちばん集まる銘柄でもあります。
中身は上場してから一番大きい数字でした。半期の利益は前年の数十倍、はじめての配当も決めています。それでも売られました。読まれたのは実績ではなく、同じ資料に載っていた10〜12月の見通しのほうです。売上収益は前の四半期から1%増。会社は説明会で、一部を7〜9月に前倒しで売った、売値の半分は10月末でもまだ交渉中だと話しました。悪い話ではありません。ただ数字が伸びていません。
同じ日、丸文がストップ高になりました。半導体を扱う商社です。上半期が自分の計画を大きく超えたので、通期の利益見通しと年間配当を一緒に書き換えました。配当は77円から100円です。東京エレクトロンも自社の利益見通しが市場の想定を超えて買われ、レーザーテックは受注計画を上方修正しています。
前の金曜、米国の半導体指数は大きく下げていました。本来なら東京の半導体株が揃って安くなる朝です。実際には同じ業種で向きが分かれました。上がった側は全部、次について数字を出し直した会社です。
日本では会社が自分で業績予想を出します。途中で変えるときは「業績予想の修正」として改めて開示します。基準になるのは証券会社の予想ではなく、会社が前に置いた数字です。キオクシアはそのうち通期を出しません。出すのは次の四半期の分だけです。だから一行に全部の重さが乗ります。
そちらでは、会社が自分で業績予想を出す決まりになっていますか。出すなら、その数字を外したときに説明を求められますか。
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