Crypto
Unlock schedules are public — most people just never look Unlock schedules are public — most people just never look
Almost every token that launched in the last few years has a vesting schedule. Team allocation, investor allocation, ecosystem fund, all of it releasing on a timetable that was published before the token ever traded.
This information is public. It sits in the tokenomics section of the whitepaper, and aggregators track it in calendar form. And yet unlock events routinely catch holders by surprise, because almost nobody reads it before buying.
Here is why it matters more than most narratives.
Circulating supply is not total supply. A token showing a modest market cap may have only a fraction of its supply unlocked. The fully diluted valuation accounts for everything that will eventually exist. When the gap between those two numbers is large, you are looking at a lot of future supply arriving at prices its holders did not pay.
Early investors did not pay market price. Seed rounds happen at a fraction of listing price. Someone holding at that basis has an entirely different definition of profit than someone who bought on an exchange. When their tokens unlock, they can sell far below current price and still make many times their money.
Cliffs concentrate the impact. Many schedules have a cliff — nothing releases for a period, then a large tranche unlocks at once, followed by linear release. Those cliff dates are where the sharp moves happen.
What to actually do with this.
Before buying, look up the unlock schedule and note the next significant date. Compare circulating supply to total supply. If a large percentage is still locked, understand that the current price is being set by a small float, and small floats move easily in both directions.
One nuance worth knowing: unlocks are not automatically bearish. Price often declines into an anticipated unlock as the market positions ahead of it, then stabilises after the event because the overhang everyone feared is now resolved. This is the same buy-the-rumour mechanic that appears everywhere else. The event being known in advance is exactly why the reaction happens before it, not on the day.
The point is not that unlocks are a signal to sell. It is that the schedule is published, and choosing not to read it is choosing to be the last to know something everyone else can see.Almost every token that launched in the last few years has a vesting schedule. Team allocation, investor allocation, ecosystem fund, all of it releasing on a timetable that was published before the token ever traded.
This information is public. It sits in the tokenomics section of the whitepaper, and aggregators track it in calendar form. And yet unlock events routinely catch holders by surprise, because almost nobody reads it before buying.
Here is why it matters more than most narratives.
Circulating supply is not total supply. A token showing a modest market cap may have only a fraction of its supply unlocked. The fully diluted valuation accounts for everything that will eventually exist. When the gap between those two numbers is large, you are looking at a lot of future supply arriving at prices its holders did not pay.
Early investors did not pay market price. Seed rounds happen at a fraction of listing price. Someone holding at that basis has an entirely different definition of profit than someone who bought on an exchange. When their tokens unlock, they can sell far below current price and still make many times their money.
Cliffs concentrate the impact. Many schedules have a cliff — nothing releases for a period, then a large tranche unlocks at once, followed by linear release. Those cliff dates are where the sharp moves happen.
What to actually do with this.
Before buying, look up the unlock schedule and note the next significant date. Compare circulating supply to total supply. If a large percentage is still locked, understand that the current price is being set by a small float, and small floats move easily in both directions.
One nuance worth knowing: unlocks are not automatically bearish. Price often declines into an anticipated unlock as the market positions ahead of it, then stabilises after the event because the overhang everyone feared is now resolved. This is the same buy-the-rumour mechanic that appears everywhere else. The event being known in advance is exactly why the reaction happens before it, not on the day.
The point is not that unlocks are a signal to sell. It is that the schedule is published, and choosing not to read it is choosing to be the last to know something everyone else can see.
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